As many other NATO members that are worried about the mounting return of high-intensity peer-to-peer warfare risks in Europe, the Netherlands is forecasted to increase defense spending from $22.8 billion in 2024 up to $31.2 billion in 2029.

Following the terrific increase of its acquisition budget from $2.8 billion to $5.7 billion in 2024, in accordance with the concurrent modernization programs, the Dutch acquisition budget is expected to grow again during the period 2025-2029, from $6.7 billion in 2025 to $8.0 billion in 2029. This will improve the country’s total defense budget from $22.8 billion in 2024 to $31.2 billion in 2029, however still not reach the NATO commitment to spend 2% of the GDP on defense. Some media pretentiously reported as a potential cause of the Netherlands’ increased expenditure the desire of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to be the next Secretary General of NATO, probably not supportable by a country with a defense spending barely above 1.0% of GDP as in the past. At this stage, the other main contender should be the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who has expressed interest in the position, and who can be supported by an announced increase of her country’s defense spending to 3.2% of GDP in 2024.

Without considering the already signed contract to purchase 4 new BARRACUDA-class submarines, the first Dutch initiative that could enjoy the additional funds should be recreating its own tank battalion. Indeed, the Netherlands moved from 1,000 tanks at the height of the Cold War to cut the last 2 tank battalions in 2011; since then the country has leased 18 Leopard 2 A6 tanks (in picture) from Germany, being part of 1 of the 5 companies within the German-Dutch 414 Tank Battalion. With a letter to The Hague Parliament, the German government has already invited the Dutch to a joint purchasing initiative for the Leopard 2A8 main battle tank. Bringing back in service a new tank battalion could also trigger the creation of a heavy infantry brigade, which could seriously reinforce the middle front of the Alliance. The Netherlands is also seeking to join the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System project, once defined the future tank’s specifications. 

Additionally, it is absolutely relevant that the Netherlands is one of the main contributors to Ukrainian efforts providing Kiev with a significant number of high-quality weapon systems: as F-16, LEOPARD 2A5, artillery, rigid hull inflatable boats, militarized river patrol boats, and CB90 assault craft.

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