A formal announcement of Australia’s decision to obtain nuclear attack submarines, as a result of the AUKUS agreement, is expected to happen next month. However, some speculations about the likely solution AUKUS are beginning to leak out, and they all go towards a possible British solution. The last of them directly came out in rare public comments by Australian Defence Minister, Richard Marles, and his British counterpart, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. At the end of their last meeting in Canberra, Marles said that an announcement on Australia’s preferred option is not far away and would be in any case a three-way collaboration between Australia, UK, and US. However, during the meeting, UK Defence Secretary Wallace appeared to offer some evidence for the UK next-gen sub, based on, but not the ASTUTE, saying the AUKUS boats would be a joint endeavor led by the Australian decision. These declarations would appear to make the British offering a serious candidate. There are two points that need to be overcome by the UK Government and Defence Industries: the Australians' close cooperation with the US Navy in the Indo-Pacific and their preference for having on their future platforms prompt strike capabilities, including cruise missiles and potentially hypersonic missiles. A USN VIRGINIA-class payload module can host those kinds of weapon systems while the ASTUTE-class can employ only torpedo-launched cruise missiles without owning any prompt strike capabilities. In preparation for it, the UK MoD awarded 2 contracts both worth £85 million to BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce for Submersible Ship Nuclear Replacement (SSNR) design and concept work, and roughly another 250 million dollars investment in the project just 2 days after the AUKUS project was announced. The signs from the US have not been instead all positive. Despite the declaration of US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin that the US will not allow an Australian capability gap between the COLLINS class retirement (planned for 2039) and the deployment of its first nuke-powered attack subs, as already reported by RID, some American lawmakers in the Senate have raised concerns. These have been focused on supplying Australia with refitted LOS ANGELES-class boats or providing VIRGINIA-class boats, crewed by Australians, which could have an impact on meeting the stated requirement of 66 submarines in accordance with the timeline scheduled. The British option instead could also benefit from having British sailors serving on Australian naval vessels, as part of the agreement, and as UK forward-deployed presence in the Indo-Pacific.

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