According to multiple US and Indo-Pacific media, United States President Biden has given the order to update a highly classified nuclear strategy to address China’s growing contender role and its potential collaboration with adversaries of Washington. In detail, the leaked document is the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” typically reviewed every 4 years, which has limited access to a selected group of administration officials due to its classified nature.

For the first time, the amendment to the guidance explicitly mentions deterrence strategies and actions directed at China and its “rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.” The potential military nuclear ‘course of action’ options also included coordinated attacks involving Russia, North Korea, and Iran. This represents a significant reorientation of America’s deterrent strategy since the period post-World War II, with the Truman Administration.

The reason behind the strategic shift has not been dictated by the ferocious economic competition or the significant investment in military equipment by Beijing. The decision came after the Pentagon’s assessment of China’s nuclear stockpiles which, in accordance with the report, will rival the size and diversity of the United States and Russia over the next decade. In detail, the Pentagon’s estimates see China’s nuclear warheads, currently 500, would expand to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.

Despite not being officially confirmed by the White House, speeches provided by senior administration officials have alluded to the change, echoed by other important figures in the American nuclear community, such as Vipin Narang, an MIT nuclear strategist who served in the Pentagon, and Pranay Vaddi, National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and nonproliferation. The latter also added that the shift has been conducted to posture the United States Armed Forces to be “prepared to respond to nuclear crises that break out simultaneously or sequentially, with a combination of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons”.

China’s Foreign Ministry has already reported, through its spokesperson, that this news has “seriously concerned” Chinese leadership “stirring up the so-called ‘China nuclear threat theory’.” However, the Chinese government official has confirmed that the American move does not change the “no-first-use” policy for Beijing’s nuclear weapons.

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